Introduction

This edition of World Vehicle Forecasts and Strategies (WVFS) examines the prospects for the world automotive industry for the years up to and including 2050. As well as the actual volume forecasts provided, the main emphasis is more concerned with the strategic aspects of coping with a rapidly changing world.

Globalisation has dramatically pivoted the industry way from the historic, traditional setting of a dominant “West”, with manufacturers mainly in the USA, Germany, France Italy, the UK, and – latterly – Japan and S Korea. Many of the manufacturers and famous names located in these nations have now disappeared, become significantly weakened or have merged. Although those that remain will still play their part in their home regions, their presence is likely to become marginal on a global scale.

The report looks at historic sales and production volumes and provides forecasts for the years to 2050, the future size of the vehicle parc, the level of vehicle ownership density, – measured as the number of vehicles per 1,000 population – and the number of vehicles likely to be scrapped. These forecasts are therefore calculated on a detailed 64-year history of the industry and future drivers of growth.

Summary

The core arithmetic is as simple as it is stark. In summary, sales of vehicles with four wheels and more have recovered strongly since the Covid epidemic and are now approaching the almost 100 Mn units per year achieved immediately prior to Covid.

At a static no-growth level of activity, some 2.6 Mn units will come off the production lines between 2025 and 2050 inclusive. However, this volume world be insufficient to meet the needs of a population forecast to reach almost 9.7 Bn by 2050, 1.5 Bn or 20% higher than at present.

The new core forecast therefore suggests that production/sales volume will be 3.6 Bn units over the period, which means annual output will need to rise to a net 182 Mn units a year by 2050.

The vehicle parc will rise from 1.7 Bn in 2024 to at least 2.7 Bn in 2050, an increase of 1.03 Bn units or 60%, but it is distinctly possible that the parc could exceed 3.0 Bn. Over the same period the number of vehicles scrapped will reach 2.6 Bn units equal to a scrap rate of 71%, assuming average vehicle life remains at 12 years. (It also needs to be remembered hat there are circa 600 Mn 2- and 3- wheelers in circulation and millions more are being added each year.)

This will increase global ownership density from 211 per 1,000 in 2025 to 282 per 1,000 in 2050.

Conclusion

There is already concern on some fronts about the number of vehicles plying the roads of the world and their contribution to climate change and global warming. As this forecast suggests that the number of vehicles in existence could almost double or more by 2050, with only a modest expansion in the markets of the future, some serious questions must be asked.

1. Can the planet sustain such an increase in motorisation?
2. If not, should a limit be imposed on the global volume of vehicles produced/sold and in use?
3. Should there be a limit on automotive activity in the mature nations to allow the developing world to catch up?
4. Should the developing world be asked to accept limited development and would it be enforceable?
5. How would the burgeoning populations of the developing world advance, flourish and evolve without an increase in motorisation, the most important single tool necessary for development?
6. Who would make these decisions and on what authority?

With more than 100 Mn units – and rising – rolling onto the world’s each year, the time for decision or acceptance is not far off.

The forecast

Creating the forecast relies on many calculations for 20 of the most important individual countries and as well as entire regions. W Europe, for example, is so homogenous that it is considered in this forecast to be a single country, rather than 16 individual nations.

The results and information behind these forecasts are contained out below and include discussions on:

1. The future size and structure of the industry
2. Why there is a Global Conundrum
3. Why is there a choice between the People or the Planet and is it resolvable
4. Where we are now
5. What the future holds
6. Appendix

The main data analysed are:

1. Population, expansion and deprivation
2. Sales
3. Production
4. Scrappage

and their relationships, including:

1. Sales to population
2. Vehicle ownership density
3. Landmass, people and vehicle density
4. Urbanisation
5. Roads
6. Electricity generation

As the old saying goes “forecasting is difficult, especially when it’s about the future”.

Some of the data presented are remarkable and may seem to be optimistic – or, if you prefer – pessimistic, as many believe the world is already awash with vehicles and there is no room for large additional volumes to ply its roads.

However, this is mainly true for the “more developed” world. Africa and Asia alone are already home to 77% of the world’s population, rising to more than 80% by 2050 with Africa on its own representing more growth over the years to 2050 than the rest of the world combined.

There is little doubt that a significant majority of the world’s population is badly in need of additional resources if deprivation is to be reduced, and conflict avoided. This means future automotive volumes may well be significantly in excess of the numbers shown above.

There is a major rift, however. This is concerned with the automotive drive trains of the future. The section on electricity examines this aspect against forecasts for the rate of expansion of generation, but the mainstream vehicles currently available will not be suitable for operation in many developing areas of the world.

Hence the subtitles to this report The Global Conundrum and People or the Planet.